Credit Rationing and Internal Ratings in the Face of Innovation and Uncertainty

Some empirical investigations are pointing to the fact that high-tech firms are subject to credit rationing to a higher extent than the avereage. This excess of credit rationing may not be due top information asymmetries, but rather to the inability of credit institutions to screen projects in novel fields. This article provides a model of this phenomenon and explores its implications in the light of recent changes in the screening procedures of major banks. In particular, the changes to be made in order to comply with the "Basel II" accord emphasise the impact of screening procedures on credit rationing

Financial fragility in a basic agent-based model

A simple agent-based model of business units lending money to one another is sufficient to understand on what conditions avalanches of bankruptcies may arise. The model highlights the consequences of specialisation into money lending as well as the impact of preferential lending relations

Trajectories in Physical Space out of Communications in Acquaintance Space: An Agent-Based Model of a Textile Industrial District

This article presents an agent-based model of an Italian textile district where thousands of small firms specialize in particular phases of fabrics production. It is an empirical and methodological model that reconstructs the communications between firms when they arrange production chains. In their turn, production chains reflect into road traffic in the geographical areas where the district extends. The reconstructed traffic exhibits a pattern that has been observed, but not foreseen, by policy makers

Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory.

A novel decision theory is emerging out of sparse findings in economics, mathematics and, most importantly, psychology and computational cognitive science. It rejects a fundamental assumption of the theory of rational decision-making, namely, that uncertain belief rests on independent assessment of utility and probability, and includes envisioning possibilities within its scope. Several researchers working with these premises, independently of one another, arrived at the conclusion that decision is made by highlighting the positive features of the alternative that will be chosen while opposing it to a loosing alternative, whose unpleasant aspects have been stressed. This article frames together contributions from different disciplines, often unknown to one another, with the hope of improving the coordination of research efforts. Furthermore, it discusses the status of the novel theory with respect to our current idea of rationality.Rationality; Shackle; Shafer; Search for Dominant Structure; Differentiation -- Consolidation; Constraint Satisfaction Networks; Construction of Narratives

A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles

Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the "secondary wave" of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental "primary waves" at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter's concern for innovation with Keynes' concern for uncertainty and expectations formation, this article focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs confronting uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs' behaviour is reconstructed by modelling the functioning of their cognitive processes when innovations appear. Recognition of the possibilities opened up by a successful innovation generates a state of optimism in the minds of single entrepreneurs, which eventually propagates to the whole economy triggering an investments upswing. likewise, unsuccessful innovations can trigger a downswing.Uncertainty, Innovation, Investments, Cognitive Processes

Agent-Based Models of Industrial Clusters and Districts

Agent-based models, an instance of the wider class of connectionist models, allow bottom-up simulations of organizations constituted byu a large number of interacting parts. Thus, geogrfaphical clusters of competing or collaborating firms constitute an obvious field of application. This contribution explains what agent-based models are, reviews applications in the field of industrial clusters and focuses on a simulator of infra- and inter-firm communications.Agent-based models, industrial clusters, industrial districts

Credit Rationing and Internal Ratings in the face of Innovation and Uncertainty

Some empirical investigations are pointing to the fact that high-tech firms are subject to credit rationing to a higher extent than the average. This excess of credit rationing may not be due to information asymmetries, but rather to the inability of credit institutions to screen projects in novel fields. This article provides a model of this phenomenon and explores its implications in the light of recent changes in the screening procedures of major banks. In particular, the changes to be made in order to comply with the ``Basel II'' accord emphasize the impact of screening procedures on credit rationing.Credit rationing, High-Tech Firms, Internal Rating Systems, Basel II

Recognizing Investment Opportunities at the Onset of Recoveries

Investment decision-making is modeled by means of a Kohonen neural net, where neurons represent firms. This is done in order to model investments in novel fields of economic activity, that according to this model are carried out when firms recognize the emergence of a new technological pattern. Combination of the equations of Kohonen model neuron with macroeconomic relationships yields disaggregated accelerator equations with flexible coefficients, that in the aggregate and fixed- coefficients case boil down to traditional accelerator equations. A simulation tests the model in a situation that is remindful of the very beginning of economic recoveries.Accelerator, Investment, Neural Nets, Cognition

A Model of Vacancy Chains as a Mechanism for Resource Allocation

Vacancy chains can be tracked in any context where a the availability of a desirable resource triggers a cascade of occupations through which the scarce resource flows through different owners. However, under certain conditions vacancy chains, rather than markets or other forms of competition, \emph{determine} the allocation of the resource. This article develops a formal and computational model of vacancy chains as a mechanism for resource allocation in order to find out their properties with respect to organizational forms. We find that hierarchies with few middle managers are particularly prone to make use of vacancy chains in order to allocate resources that originate at the top, such as employment positions. In fact, vacancy chains often disappear when information is widely available, because information is likely to attract applicants who engage in a competition. Thus, the many middle managers of a thick organization may compete for a resource that originates at the top. On the contrary, organizations that are thick at the bottom and at the top, but thin in the middle, are most likely to regulate resource allocation by means of vacancy chains.Resource allocation, Organizational form, Labor market